2026 跨境电商关税大变局：De Minimis 终结后卖家生存指南
2026 Cross-Border Ecommerce Tariff Shakeup: Seller Survival Guide
> 📌 TL;DR
> 2026 年，美国正式取消 $800 小额包裹免税（de minimis）政策，欧盟也在收紧 €150 门槛。跨境电商的“低价直邮”黄金时代宣告终结。Temu 涨价 20-50%，SHEIN 部分商品涨幅达 377%，预计 30% 的中小卖家将被淘汰。但危机中也藏着机会——本文带你看清全局，找到活路。
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🌍 发生了什么？一张图看懂全球关税变局
过去十年，跨境电商的爆发式增长有一个不起眼但至关重要的基础：小额包裹免税政策（De Minimis）。在美国，价值低于 $800 的进口包裹可以免关税、简化清关。这意味着一件从中国直邮的 $15 T恤，不需要缴纳任何进口税。
这个政策红利催生了 Temu、SHEIN 等平台的崛起——它们的核心商业模式就是中国工厂直邮消费者，跳过中间商，跳过关税。
但 2026 年，游戏规则彻底改变了：
| 国家/地区 | 政策变化 | 生效时间 |
|-----------|----------|----------|
| 美国 | 取消 $800 de minimis 豁免（中国商品），征收 30% 关税或每件 $200 | 2025年8月起分阶段实施 |
| 欧盟 | 取消 €150 免税门槛，每件小包裹征收 €2-3 通关费 | 2026年起过渡实施 |
| 日本 | 废除个人进口折扣计税，全面征收 10% 消费税 | 2026年 |
| 泰国、墨西哥 | 同步取消小额免税政策 | 2025-2026年 |
这不是一个国家的政策调整，而是全球性的制度重构。
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💰 数字说话：到底贵了多少？
来做个简单的算术：
以前（de minimis 时代）：
一件 $20 的商品从中国直邮美国，物流费约 $3-5，消费者支付 $23-25，零关税。
现在（2026年）：
同样的 $20 商品，需要缴纳 30% 关税（$6）或 $200/件的从量税（取较高者）。如果按从价税算，消费者至少支付 $29-31。如果商品价值更低（比如 $5 的手机壳），从量税 $200 直接让直邮模式彻底不可行。
> ⚠️ 关键数字：跨境直邮小包的物流成本预计上涨 30%-50%。“小包直邮 + 低价铺货”的商业模式已经在经济上彻底瓦解。
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🏪 巨头们在做什么？
Temu：激进转型
Temu 的反应最为剧烈：
1. 美国站全面转向本土发货 — 网站上只展示从美国仓库发货的商品，中国直邮商品标记为“缺货”。官方声明：“美国所有销售现在由本地卖家处理，订单从美国境内履约。”
2. 大规模涨价 — 全托管商品涨价 20-50%，部分商品涨幅达 100-200%
3. 招募美国本土卖家 — 积极拉拢美国本土供应商入驻
4. 削减美国广告投入 — 2025年4月几乎完全停止了 Google Shopping 广告投放，转向欧盟和东南亚
5. 欧盟销量暴涨 — 2025年上半年，超过 25% 的欧盟人口在 Temu 上消费过，欧盟销售额同比增长 60%+
SHEIN：价格重塑
- 服饰、厨具等产品价格上调，最高涨幅达 377%
- 加速推进海外仓网络建设
- 在巴西的 marketplace 模式成为新增长点
Amazon：坐收渔利
Amazon 可能是这场变局中最大的受益者。当 Temu 和 SHEIN 的价格优势被关税削平后，消费者开始重新评估：价格差距缩小了，但 Amazon 的物流速度、售后保障、Prime 会员体系依然在那里。
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📮 邮政系统的连锁反应
一个被很多人忽略的影响：多国邮政直接暂停了对美寄件业务。
德国、丹麦、瑞典、意大利、法国、奥地利、英国皇家邮政、新加坡邮政、印度邮政——这些国家的邮政系统在美国宣布取消 de minimis 后，相继暂停了对美小包业务。原因很简单：新的清关要求太复杂，邮政系统的 IT 和流程跟不上。
这意味着不只是中国卖家受影响，全球的小型跨境卖家都被波及了。
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🔮 中小卖家的生存指南
说完了宏观形势，来聊点实际的。如果你是一个跨境电商卖家，2026 年该怎么办？
1. 海外仓是必选项，不是可选项
“小包直邮”模式已死。海运集装箱批量发货到海外仓，再由本土物流派送（B2B2C 模式），即使缴纳正常关税，摊薄到单件的成本也远低于直邮模式。
2. 放弃低价铺货，转向中高端产品线
$5 的手机壳、$3 的数据线——这类商品在新关税体系下几乎没有利润空间。卖家需要重新定义产品线，推高毛利品类，建立品牌溢价。新产品的定价至少要比以前高 $10-20。
3. 多市场分散风险
不要把所有鸡蛋放在美国市场。东南亚（Temu 正在加大投入）、巴西（SHEIN marketplace 增长迅猛）、欧盟（短期内政策相对宽松）都是值得关注的市场。但要注意：欧盟的 €150 门槛也在收紧中，这个窗口期不会太长。
4. 合规是生命线
2026 年被称为“关税执法之年”——美国司法部（DOJ）将大幅加强对关税规避行为的执法。任何试图通过低报货值、拆分包裹等方式逃避关税的做法，风险都在急剧上升。
5. 关注供应链本土化
Temu 已经在做的事情，中小卖家也该考虑：是否可以在目标市场找到本土供应商？或者与当地的仓储物流服务商深度合作？本土化不只是降低关税成本，也是提升消费者信任的关键。
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📊 谁会活下来？
> ✨ 一个反直觉的观点：关税大变局对有实力的中国卖家来说，可能反而是利好。
为什么？因为中国卖家的规模化能力和供应链成本优势，使他们能够承受关税冲击并继续供货。而其他国家的中小卖家——尤其是依赖 de minimis 红利的东南亚和南亚卖家——可能率先被淘汰。
预计 2026 年的淘汰率约 30%，但被淘汰的主要是：
- 纯低价铺货、没有品牌溢价的卖家
- 完全依赖直邮模式、没有海外仓布局的卖家
- 单一市场、没有分散风险的卖家
活下来的卖家，将面对一个竞争更少、利润更健康的市场。
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🎯 写在最后
跨境电商的“草莽时代”正在结束。低价直邮、薛政策红利的玩法已经走到了尽头。但这不是跨境电商的终结——而是一次残酷但必要的升级。
那些能快速适应新规则的卖家——拥抱海外仓、提升产品力、合规经营、多市场布局——将在洗牌后获得更大的市场份额。
> ✨ 跨境电商没有死，死的是旧玩法。
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> 🔄 2026-04-23 更新
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> 税率修正：美国对中国小包的从价关税经历了多次调整——从最初的 30% 上调至 90%、再到 120%，最终于 2025 年 5 月 12 日降至 54%（当前执行税率）。每件从量税也从 $200 调整为按申报价值比例计算。
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> 最高法院 IEEPA 裁决（2026 年 2 月 20 日）：美国最高法院以 6:3 裁定，总统无权依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收关税。但特朗普随即签署行政命令，声称该裁决不适用于 de minimis 豁免取消，CBP 确认继续执行暂停政策。这意味着 de minimis 取消的法律基础存在争议，但实际执行未受影响。
>
> 全球 de minimis 全面暂停：2025 年 8 月 29 日起，美国已将 de minimis 暂停扩展至所有国家（不仅限于中国）。泰国于 2026 年 1 月 1 日将免税门槛从 1,500 泰铢降至 1 泰铢。欧盟将于 2026 年 7 月 1 日起对 €150 以下电商包裹征收每件 €3 关税。
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> CAPE Phase 1 上线（4 月 20 日）：CBP 正式启动 IEEPA 关税退税电子申报系统，这是退税流程的第一步。
> 🔄 2026-04-27 更新
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> Section 122 替代关税：最高法院 2 月 20 日裁定 IEEPA 不授权总统征收关税后，特朗普政府迅速转向《贸易法》第 122 条，宣布对所有进口商品征收 10% 通用关税，有效期 150 天（至 2026 年 7 月 24 日届满）。以纽约州为首的 23 个州已提起诉讼要求阻止该关税，案件于 4 月 10 日在国际贸易法院（CIT）开庭审理。
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> 中美关税双边协议延续：2025 年 5 月 12 日达成的 90 天减税协议（将 4 月的 125% 互加关税各降至 10%）已于 2025 年 11 月延长一年，至 2026 年 11 月 10 日有效。芬太尼相关关税也从 20% 降至 10%。但叠加 Section 301 等其他关税后，部分中国商品的累计有效税率仍超过 100%（电动车零部件超 145%）。
>
> 欧盟正式通过：欧盟理事会已于 2026 年 2 月 11 日最终批准取消 €150 免税门槛的新规，确认自 7 月 1 日起对低价包裹按 HS 税目每类征收 €3 固定关税（2028 年过渡到正常税率）。此外，法国已于 3 月 1 日实施每类 €2 附加费，罗马尼亚自 1 月 1 日起征收每包裹 25 列伊（约 €5）物流税。
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> 🔄 2026-05-13 更新
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> Section 122 关税被判无效（2026 年 5 月 7 日）：国际贸易法院（CIT）正式裁定特朗普政府依据《贸易法》第 122 条征收的 10% 通用关税无效。这是继最高法院 2 月裁定 IEEPA 关税违宪后的又一次司法打击。该关税原定 7 月 24 日届满，现在法律基础已被推翻。预计政府将提起上诉，执行层面的影响仍待观察。
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> 每件从量税上限冻结：$100/件的从量税选项被保留，原计划 6 月上调至 $200/件的计划已取消。
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> IEEPA 退税进展：CBP 的 CAPE 退税系统已于 4 月 20 日启动 Phase 1，开始处理 IEEPA 相关关税退税申请。
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> 最后更新：2026-05-13
> 🔄 2026-05-18 更新
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> Section 122 上诉与临时中止令：CIT 于 5 月 7 日裁定 Section 122 关税无效后，司法部于 5 月 8 日向联邦巡回上诉法院（CAFC）提起上诉，CAFC 于 5 月 12 日批准了临时中止令。这意味着 Section 122 的 10% 全球关税目前仍在对非诉讼当事人的进口商继续征收，等待 CAFC 最终裁决。原告已于 5 月 19 日前提交回应，法院可在最终简报提交后随时做出裁定。
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> 国会永久废除 de minimis：美国国会已通过立法，永久废除 de minimis 免税政策，自 2027 年 7 月 1 日起生效。这意味着即使行政命令被推翻，de minimis 也不会恢复——立法层面已经一锤定音。
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> IEEPA 退税进展：CBP 于 5 月 5 日认证了首批 IEEPA 退税申请，5 月 12 日已将退款发送至财政部。CAPE 第一阶段覆盖约 82% 的 IEEPA 条目。此前因最高法院裁定 IEEPA 关税违宪，约 $1,660 亿美元的已征关税正在退还中。
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> 最后更新：2026-05-18
> 🔄 2026-05-25 更新
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> CIT 驳回政府中止动议（5 月 20 日）：CIT 驳回了政府要求中止执行其判决的单独动议，认定政府未能证明不可弥补的损害或胜诉可能性。但 CAFC 5 月 12 日的行政中止令仍然有效，非诉讼当事方的进口商仍需继续缴纳 10% Section 122 关税。Section 122 关税按法定限制将于 7 月 24 日届满，届时即使 CAFC 未作出裁决，关税也将自动失效（除非国会延期）。
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> 最后更新：2026-05-25
> 📌 TL;DR
> In 2026, the US officially killed the $800 de minimis exemption for Chinese goods, and the EU is tightening its €150 threshold. The golden age of "cheap direct shipping" in cross-border ecommerce is over. Temu raised prices 20-50%, SHEIN hiked some products by 377%, and an estimated 30% of small sellers may not survive. But every crisis hides opportunity — here's the full picture and how to navigate it.
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🌍 What Happened? The Global Tariff Shakeup at a Glance
For the past decade, the explosive growth of cross-border ecommerce rested on an unglamorous but critical foundation: de minimis exemptions. In the US, imported packages worth under $800 could enter duty-free with simplified customs clearance. A $15 T-shirt shipped directly from China? Zero import tax.
This policy fueled the rise of Temu, SHEIN, and similar platforms — their core business model was factory-to-consumer direct shipping, bypassing middlemen and tariffs.
In 2026, the rules changed completely:
| Country/Region | Policy Change | Effective Date |
|----------------|---------------|----------------|
| United States | Eliminated $800 de minimis for Chinese goods; 30% tariff or $200/package | Phased in from Aug 2025 |
| European Union | Removing €150 duty-free threshold; €2-3 customs processing fee per package | Transitioning in 2026 |
| Japan | Abolished personal import discount; full 10% consumption tax | 2026 |
| Thailand, Mexico | Simultaneously eliminated small-value exemptions | 2025-2026 |
This isn't one country adjusting a policy. It's a global structural reset.
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💰 Show Me the Numbers: How Much More Expensive?
Let's do some simple math:
Before (de minimis era):
A $20 item shipped from China to the US, ~$3-5 shipping. Consumer pays $23-25. Zero tariffs.
Now (2026):
Same $20 item faces 30% tariff ($6) or $200/package duty (whichever is higher). Ad valorem: consumer pays at least $29-31. For low-value items (say a $5 phone case), the $200 per-package duty makes direct shipping economically impossible.
> ⚠️ Key figure: Cross-border direct shipping costs are expected to rise 30-50%. The "direct mail + low-price listing" business model has become economically unviable.
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🏪 What Are the Giants Doing?
Temu: Aggressive Pivot
Temu's response has been the most dramatic:
1. US site shifted entirely to local fulfillment — Only products shipping from US warehouses are displayed; China-direct items marked as "out of stock." Official statement: "All sales in the US are now handled by locally based sellers."
2. Massive price increases — Fully-managed products raised 20-50%, some by 100-200%
3. Recruiting US-based sellers — Actively onboarding American suppliers
4. Slashed US ad spending — Nearly halted Google Shopping ads in April 2025, redirecting budget to EU and Southeast Asia
5. EU sales surged — Over 25% of the EU population purchased on Temu in H1 2025; EU sales jumped 60%+
SHEIN: Price Recalibration
- Apparel, kitchenware, and other categories saw price hikes, up to 377% in extreme cases
- Accelerating overseas warehouse network buildout
- Brazil's marketplace model emerging as a new growth engine
Amazon: The Quiet Winner
Amazon may be the biggest beneficiary of this shakeup. As Temu and SHEIN's price advantages erode, consumers are re-evaluating: the price gap has shrunk, but Amazon's logistics speed, customer service, and Prime ecosystem remain unchanged.
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📮 The Postal System Chain Reaction
An underreported impact: multiple national postal services suspended shipments to the US.
Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Italy, France, Austria, UK Royal Mail, Singapore Post, India Post — they all paused US-bound small package services after the de minimis elimination. The reason: new customs requirements were too complex for postal IT systems to handle quickly.
This means it's not just Chinese sellers affected — small cross-border sellers globally are caught in the crossfire.
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🔮 Seller Survival Guide for 2026
Enough macro analysis. If you're a cross-border ecommerce seller, here's what to actually do:
1. Overseas Warehousing Is Mandatory, Not Optional
Direct mail is dead. Ship containers to overseas warehouses, then use local logistics for last-mile delivery (B2B2C model). Even with normal tariffs, the per-unit cost is far lower than direct shipping.
2. Abandon Low-Price Listings, Go Mid-to-Premium
$5 phone cases, $3 cables — these products have virtually zero margin under the new tariff regime. Redefine your product line. Push higher-margin categories. Build brand premium. New products should be priced at least $10-20 higher than before.
3. Diversify Across Markets
Don't put all your eggs in the US basket. Southeast Asia (Temu is increasing investment), Brazil (SHEIN marketplace growing fast), and the EU (relatively lenient for now) are all worth exploring. But note: the EU's €150 threshold is also tightening — this window won't stay open forever.
4. Compliance Is Your Lifeline
2026 has been called "the year of tariff enforcement" — the US Department of Justice (DOJ) is expected to dramatically increase enforcement against tariff evasion. Under-declaring values, splitting packages — the risks of these tactics are skyrocketing.
5. Think Local Supply Chains
What Temu is already doing, smaller sellers should consider too: Can you source from local suppliers in your target market? Partner deeply with local warehousing and logistics providers? Localization isn't just about reducing tariff costs — it's key to building consumer trust.
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📊 Who Will Survive?
> ✨ A counterintuitive take: The tariff shakeup might actually benefit strong Chinese sellers.
Why? Because Chinese sellers' scale and supply chain cost advantages allow them to absorb tariff impacts and keep supplying. Meanwhile, smaller sellers from other countries — especially those in Southeast Asia and South Asia who relied on de minimis advantages — may be the first to exit.
The estimated 2026 attrition rate is ~30%, but those eliminated will primarily be:
- Pure low-price listers with zero brand premium
- Sellers entirely dependent on direct mail with no warehouse presence
- Single-market sellers with no risk diversification
Those who survive will face a less crowded, healthier-margin market.
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🎯 Final Thoughts
The "wild west" era of cross-border ecommerce is ending. Gaming policy loopholes with cheap direct shipping has run its course. But this isn't the death of cross-border ecommerce — it's a brutal but necessary upgrade.
Sellers who adapt quickly — embracing overseas warehousing, upgrading product quality, staying compliant, and diversifying across markets — will capture larger market share after the shakeout.
> ✨ Cross-border ecommerce isn't dead. The old playbook is.
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> 🔄 Updated 2026-04-23
>
> Tariff rate correction: The US ad valorem duty on Chinese de minimis shipments has been adjusted multiple times — from the initial 30% to 90%, then 120%, and finally lowered to 54% on May 12, 2025 (current effective rate).
>
> Supreme Court IEEPA ruling (Feb 20, 2026): SCOTUS ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. However, Trump immediately issued an executive order claiming the ruling does not apply to the de minimis suspension. CBP confirmed it will continue enforcing the suspension. The legal basis is disputed, but enforcement remains unchanged.
>
> Global de minimis suspension: Since August 29, 2025, the US has suspended de minimis for all countries (not just China). Thailand dropped its threshold from 1,500 baht to 1 baht on January 1, 2026. The EU will introduce a €3 customs duty per item on e-commerce parcels below €150, effective July 1, 2026.
>
> CAPE Phase 1 launch (April 20): CBP launched electronic filing for IEEPA tariff refunds through the ACE Portal — the first operational step toward processing refunds.
> 🔄 Updated 2026-04-27
>
> Section 122 Replacement Tariffs: After the Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20 that IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariffs, the Trump administration pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a universal 10% tariff on all imports for 150 days (expiring July 24, 2026). 23 states led by New York have filed suit to block these tariffs, with the case heard at the Court of International Trade (CIT) on April 10.
>
> US-China Bilateral Deal Extended: The 90-day tariff reduction agreement from May 12, 2025 (cutting April's 125% reciprocal tariffs to 10% each) was extended in November 2025 for one year, through November 10, 2026. Fentanyl-related tariffs were also reduced from 20% to 10%. However, cumulative effective rates on certain Chinese goods still exceed 100% when stacked with Section 301 duties (EV components above 145%).
>
> EU Formally Approved: The EU Council gave final approval on February 11, 2026 to abolish the €150 duty-free threshold, confirming a €3 flat customs duty per HS category on low-value parcels starting July 1, 2026 (transitioning to normal tariff rates by 2028). Additionally, France implemented a €2 per-category surcharge on March 1, and Romania introduced a 25 lei (~€5) per-parcel logistics tax from January 1.
>
> 🔄 Updated 2026-05-13
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> Section 122 Tariffs Ruled Invalid (May 7, 2026): The Court of International Trade (CIT) formally ruled that the Trump administration's 10% universal tariff imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act is invalid. This marks the second major judicial blow after the Supreme Court's February ruling against IEEPA tariffs. The tariff was set to expire July 24, but its legal basis has now been overturned. An appeal is expected; enforcement impact remains to be seen.
>
> Per-Package Flat Rate Frozen: The $100/package flat-rate duty option has been retained. The planned increase to $200/package starting June has been canceled.
>
> IEEPA Refund Progress: CBP's CAPE electronic refund filing system launched Phase 1 on April 20, beginning to process IEEPA-related tariff refund claims.
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> Last updated: 2026-05-13
> 🔄 2026-05-18 Update
>
> Section 122 Appeal & Temporary Stay: After the CIT ruled Section 122 tariffs unlawful on May 7, DOJ filed an appeal with the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) on May 8. The CAFC granted a temporary stay on May 12, meaning the 10% global tariff continues to be collected from non-party importers pending the appeal. Plaintiffs responded by May 19; the court may rule at any time after final briefs.
>
> Congress Permanently Repeals De Minimis: Congress has passed legislation permanently repealing the de minimis exemption, effective July 1, 2027. This means even if executive orders are overturned, de minimis won't return — it's now settled at the legislative level.
>
> IEEPA Refund Progress: CBP certified the first wave of IEEPA refunds on May 5, transmitted to Treasury on May 12. CAPE Phase 1 covers approximately 82% of IEEPA entries. An estimated $166 billion in previously collected IEEPA duties is being refunded following the Supreme Court ruling.
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> Last updated: 2026-05-18
> 🔄 2026-05-25 Update
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> CIT denied government's stay motion (May 20): The CIT denied the government's separate motion to stay enforcement of its judgment pending appeal, finding the government failed to demonstrate irreparable harm or likelihood of success on the merits. However, the CAFC's May 12 administrative stay remains in effect — non-party importers must continue paying the 10% Section 122 tariff. The Section 122 tariffs are set to expire per statutory limit on July 24, 2026, at which point they automatically lapse regardless of the CAFC ruling (unless Congress extends them).
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> Last updated: 2026-05-25